Military Spending

What is meant by military spending?

Before beginning this discussion, it is imperative to address controversy surrounding methods in which one calculates military spending. United Nations Secretary-General has called on all General Assembly member states to report their military expenditures each fiscal year by April 30. This data is then made available in the UN’s Annual Report on Military Expenditure, supervised by the UN Office for Disarmament (UNODA). However, AGCC States do not provide this data, as they consider military spending an issue of national security. Hence, for these countries, including UAE, it is only possible to rely on estimates of military spending found in studies conducted by specialised research centres, such as annual Military Balance Reports issued by London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), and annual book on arms, disarmament, and international security issued by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Definition of what constitutes military spending provided by SIPRI is most useful. It states that military spending includes spending on any of the following:

• Allocations and payments for members of armed forces’

• Provisions for civilians working in military establishments

• Expenses for military operations and maintenance

• Expenses for purchasing weaponry, military equipment, and ammunitions

• Research and development expenses

• Expenses for military construction projects or those that serve military purposes

• Pensions and social security payments for armed forces’ retired members

• Military aid

• Civil defence

• Expenses for paramilitary forces trained to carry out military operations

• Military aspects of joint activities between military and civil sectors, such as research and operations conducted in relation to outer space, medical research and experiments that have military uses, and industries that serve both sectors

Tracing Growth of Military Spending

In the initial two decades of UAE, Abu Dhabi relied on closing various deals with defence companies from US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Russia. French companies topped this list, followed by British companies, before American companies surpassed them in 1987, after appointment of Mohammed bin Zayed to positions in military.

In 2010, just before the Arab Spring uprisings took off, SIPRI put UAE’s military spending at $17.5 billion. By 2017, this number had increased to a whopping $30 billion, according to estimates by IISS.

Sources of foreign armaments

US, France, and Turkey are top countries from which UAE has imported weapons during the past four years. It imported 64 percent from the US, 10 percent from France, and 7.8 percent from Turkey. Between 2014 and 2018, the UAE ranked seventh globally in the list of countries by number of weapons purchased abroad, according to an annual World Arms Trade report issued by SIPRI in March 2019. According to the same report, the UAE comes:

• First in the list of countries that purchase weapons from Turkey, where they imported 30 percent of the weapons that Ankara exported during that four-year period.

• Second in the list of countries importing weapons from Sweden and South Africa, as the UAE imported 14 percent and 21 percent of the weapons exported by Stockholm and Pretoria, respectively.

• Third in the list of countries importing weapons from the US and Canada, where they imported 6.7 percent and 7.6 percent of the weapons exported by these countries, respectively.

Military Industries

UAE regime has endeavoured to diversify its sources of national income on the pretext of reducing dependence on oil. It has localised sophisticated industries to allow the country pump more into foreign investment and reduce import costs from abroad. In this context, it has, likewise, expanded its ability to independently set its own policy priorities, by trying reduce dependence on acquiring weapons from foreign countries. The country has further set itself up to have dramatic regional and certain international influence, by concluding deals to export arms and provide military support to other governments and groups. UAE has worked to build an entire infrastructure of military industries through partnerships with companies from South Africa, the US, Turkey, South Korea, and Italy.

By 2018, UAE ranked eighteenth in the list of global arms exporters with 0.3 percent of global production, according to SIPRI’s annual report of global arms trade issued in March 2019. Egypt was ranked first for UAE arms imports, raking in 41 percent of UAE arms exports, followed by Jordan with 10 percent, and Yemen with 7.6 percent. To grow at such a staggering rate, UAE set up large investment funds, such as Tawazun Economic Council, established in 1992 with large stakes particularly in defence and technology. Tawazun Economic Council established 90 companies and investment entities, including 40 in the defence industry sector alone. Its assets amounted to US$148 billion in 2018. The council also owns defence companies outside the UAE, such as Merkel in Germany, which specialises in manufacturing hunting rifles. By 2013, number of defence manufacturing companies in the UAE had reached nearly 200.  Later, UAE Council for Defence Companies was also established -with nearly 63 local companies as well as representative offices of foreign arms companies- in an effort to coordinate this quickly growing industry. This effort intended to eventually ensure that 40 percent of purchases made by Armed Forces would be conducted through Emirati companies. Most prominent Emirati defence companies include:

1. Tawazun Holding Company

Established in 2007, this company is wholly owned by Tawazun Economic Council. Defence companies found within Tawazun Holding Company are:

– Abu Dhabi Autonomous Systems Investments Co, LLC (ADASI): This subsidiary was established in 2007, and it works in manufacturing unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) and airships used for commercial and military purposes, manufacturing and maintaining sensor and navigation systems, as well as information collection, monitoring, and surveillance systems.

– Tawazun Dynamics: Established in 2012 through a partnership of Tawazun Holding Company (51%) and South African Denel Company (49%), it designs, manufactures, assembles, and maintains airborne precision munitions guidance systems. Among its most prominent products is “Tariq” Precision Guided Bombs Kit, which is a bomb guidance system used for air munitions weighing up to 500 kg. UAE army ordered units of Tariq system in 2013 with a value of $500 million.

– Nimr Motors: Nimr Motors is Tawazun Holding’s leading manufacturer of combat-proven light and medium-weight wheeled military vehicles, with complete in-house design and production capability for a variety of platforms to meet a diverse range of user requirements. This company produces 16 types of military vehicles used for many purposes such as urban warfare, reconnaissance, border control, logistical support, and riot control. Some of Nimr’s products, such as the Nimr-35 armoured vehicles, are made in cooperation with South African Denel Machinery Company. First fully in-house manufactured Nimr military vehicle was launched during Abu Dhabi International Defence Exhibition (IDEX) in 2011. Nimr Motors extended its presence to Algeria in 2012, by entering into an agreement to establish a joint-venture company to produce machinery with GPIM Group of Algerian Ministry of Defence. In 2013, UAE military agreed to a purchase from Nimr Motors that amounted to approximately $900 million.

– Tawazun Fine Industries: This Tawazun Holding company subsidiary manufactures necessary components related to oil and gas, aviation, and defence industries, through metalworking and testing, surface treatment, and molding via plastic injection.

– Caracal International: Officially founded in 2007, it is the first company to manufacture light weapons in AGCC region. It extended its activities to North America in 2012 by establishing a subsidiary under the name Caracal USA. It was also contracted by the Bahraini National Guard in 2012 to supply it with light weapons. Its average annual production in 2012 was approximately 40,000 pistols. Caracal pistol was also approved as a personal weapon for officers in UAE military and interior ministry. It was also approved by Bahraini ministry of interior to arm its officers. In 2015, the Emirati army also contracted Caracal International to supply 80,000 assault rifles.

– Caracal Light Ammunition (CLA): CLA produces and assembles a range of diversified ammunition calibres for both the military and sporting sector. Founded in 1994, it was formerly known as ADCOM. Its annual production volume in 2012 ranged from 80 to 90 million assorted rounds, as well as an additional 8 to million more ammunitions.

– Tawazun Safety, Security, and Disaster Management City (Jaheziya): This subsidiary provides joint technical, vocational, and specialised training services to the agencies working in areas of safety, security, preparedness, and crisis and disaster management.

– Burkan Munitions Systems: Founded in 2007, it is a joint venture between Tawazun Holding, Al-Jaber Trading Establishment, and German Rheinmetall company. It manufactures, assembles, and tests various munitions, such as those for infantry and artillery, as well as aircraft bombs. This is in addition to its work in expired munitions disposal.

– Advanced Pyrotechnics: Founded in 2016, it works in the field of non-lethal ammunitions used to paralyse people, and riot control, such as sound bombs, signal shots, and smoke bombs.

– Tawazun for Advanced Defence Systems: This subsidiary was established after the restructuring of the Russian company, Tsar Cannon. It works in the design of high-precision weapons, such as sniper rifles.

– Rabdan Academy: Established by a presidential decree issued in 2013 this educational institution was opened in September 2017. It offers accredited programmes from American and British authorities in the fields of Integrated Emergency Management, Crime Theatre, Intelligence Analysis, National Security, and the management of comprehensive police stations. Its Board of Trustees is chaired by Australian General Michael Simon Hindmarsh, Commander of the UAE Presidential Guard. The number of foreign lecturers in Rabdan is 20 out of a total of 31 permanent lecturers.

– Remaya International: Founded in 2009, it works in designing and managing integrated products and solutions for Shooting Clubs and Courses.

– Al-Hosn Armored Systems: Established in 2015, it specialises in production of bulletproof vests, protective military measures, and construction of armoured vehicle towers.

– Al-Jasoor: Founded in 2017 as a partnership between Tawazun Holding and the Turkish Autocar Company, Al-Jasoor’s armoured vehicles have been developed to deliver advanced offensive and defensive capabilities that bring agility, mobility, and versatility to forces in the field. Al-Jasoor most prominent armoured vehicle is an amphibious, armoured, combat, eight-wheel drive vehicle called Rabdan.

– Tawazun Industrial Park: This huge park is located on the road linking Abu Dhabi with Dubai. It includes advanced infrastructure designed to accommodate local defence industries and attract international defence companies that seek to establish branches in the Middle East. TIP offers many incentives such as facilitating the issuance of licenses, ensuring full transfer of capital, and accessing the markets in the GCC, Middle East, and North Africa without any custom duties, thanks to the free trade agreements signed by the UAE, as well as the absence of taxes on importing equipment, machinery, and raw materials allocated to production. The TIP’s work areas include:

– Defence manufacturing

– Basic metal

– Precision

– Aviation

– Supporting industries for oil and gas

2. Mubadala Investment Company

Mubadala is a mega company owned by the Abu Dhabi government, with an investment portfolio of more than USD$225 billion. It has diversified investments in more than 50 countries that include aviation, agriculture, information and communications technology, semiconductors, minerals and mining, pharmaceutical and medical technology, renewable energy and utilities, oil refining, petrochemicals, real estate, infrastructure, and defence industries.

Mubadala was established in 2007 by merging the International Petroleum Investment Company (IPIC), established by Sheikh Zayed in 1984 with the aim of utilising oil revenues to establish vital infrastructure projects and facilities, with Mubadala Development Company, established in 2002 and which owned a number of companies operating in defence industries like:

– Al-Taif Technical Services Company: Established in 2006, since 2008, it has overseen technical services for the Emirati army’s general maintenance corps

– Mubadala Aerospace Industry: An aircraft components manufacturer, it builds tail rib assembly for Boeing 777 aircrafts

Mubadala Investment Company owns 40% of the Abu Dhabi Ship Building Company (ADSB), and provides maintenance, repair, and overhaul services to military, or navy, and commercial ships and offshore platforms in the Arabian Gulf. Military/navy ship construction constitutes 80% of its total work. It produces a wide variety of ships ranging from 15-metre-long landing ships to 50-metre-long passenger vessels. It succeeded in manufacturing Bainuna-class (corvette) frigates for the Emirati navy in a deal worth 800€ million EU. In 2017, the company delivered two landing boats to Kuwaiti Ministry of Defence as part of an order to purchase eight boats.

3. Emirates Military Industries Company (EDIC)

On December 2, 2014, marking UAE’s National Day, it was announced that 11 local defence companies, owned by Mubadala Investment Company, Tawazun Holding, and the Emirates Advanced Investments Group, would merge to Emirates Military Industries Company (EDIC). Luc Vigneron, former Chairman at Thales, one of the largest European companies working in defence electronics, was chosen to lead EDIC as its first CEO. By 2018, the number of EDIC’s companies has reached 16, and its focus was on the production of technologically advanced weapons such as unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) or drones, unmanned land vehicles, armoured vehicles, and smart shells.

Among EDIC’s most prominent subsidiaries are: Abu Dhabi Autonomous Systems Investments (ADASI), Abu Dhabi Ship Building (ADSB), Barge Dynamics (previously Tawazun Dynamics), EDIC for Precision Industries, Burkan Munitions Systems, EDIC Land Maintenance, EDIC Caracal International, and Nimr Motors, whose average monthly production has risen from only two vehicles in 2014 to 80 vehicles in 2016. In 2017, its production capacity reached five vehicles per day.

EDIC also owns:

– Advanced Military Maintenance Repair & Overhaul Centre (AMMROC): It performs maintenance, repair, and overhaul of equipment and components included in defence systems.

– EDIC Bayanat: It works in providing aerial, marine, and topographic surveying services, as well as mapping and geospatial data management. The company’s origins go back to Mubadala Surveying Services, a subsidiary of Mubadala, whose assets go back to Military Survey Authority of the Armed Forces after its transformation to a specialised commercial service company – whose services are not limited to defence and security sectors, but extend to oil, gas, environment, transportation, and other sectors.

– Thales Advanced Solutions: It is a joint venture company between EDIC, Thales Communications, and Thales international. It works in the field of developing IT systems, software, and solutions for technologies related to communication and radar systems.

Local military industrialisation

UAE’s local military production began bearing fruit with 2011 announcement that first home-made armoured vehicle would be produced nationally by Nimr. Then, in 2013, ADCOM announced that successful tests of the first homemade unmanned aircraft had been conducted. Called “Yabhun-Etihad 40”, its launch was announced in 2011 on the 40th anniversary of UAE’s independence.

Yabhon United 40, also called Yabhon Smart Eye 2, is a UAV capable of remotely controlled or autonomous flight operations and was developed by ADCOM Systems primarily for the UAE Air Force. It carries 10 air-to-surface missiles. In 2013, the Al-Seer Marine Company announced speedy, unmanned, and remote-controlled surveillance boats that could work to organise maritime traffic, secure tankers, survey ports, and collect pictorial marine data.

In 2019, UAE announced that AMMROC had developed an armament system in Black Hawk helicopter, making it a helicopter equipped for combat with laser-guided missiles, in cooperation with Lockheed Martin. Also in 2019, UAE Calidus announced manufacturing of first homemade light fighter aircraft named B-250 (Badr), which could provide close air support and be used for surveillance, reconnaissance, and intelligence.

A number of researchers have questioned the accuracy of the repeated announcements of locally manufactured weapons. For instance, Zoe Stanley-Lockman says that UAE companies depend on the acquisition of foreign weapon blueprints or existing weapons platforms and then announce them with new names as locally manufactured products. Indeed, this may be the case with “Tariq” Precision Guided Bombs Kit, which resembles the Umbani precision-guided bomb kit manufactured by Denel Dynamics in South Africa. Likewise, “Aqrab” and “Nimr 35” vehicles produced by the Nimr Motors Company resemble two armoured vehicles “RG-31” and the anti-mine vehicle “RG-35,” manufactured by Denel. Stanley-Lockman also argues that even if the vehicle’s body is made locally, parts are often imported from abroad. Likewise, Bainuna frigates, manufactured by the Abu Dhabi Ship Building Company, are similar to ones made by the French Constructions Mecaniques de Normandie (CMN). It is the French company that designed and built the first Bainuna frigate that UAE navy contracted to ADSB Company. Furthermore, advanced industrial and technical base level of industry needed for research, design, and development of weapons is not widely or economically available within the UAE, which makes UAE companies dependent on their foreign partners for research and development.

Despite these critiques, “Emirat-ising” UAE’s defence industries represents an advanced step for AGCC countries. However, it still faces several challenges, the most prominent of which is the difficulty of competing with international arms companies, in terms of both product quality or market relations. Armament deals are usually subject to political considerations, which, in turn, are what allow international companies to wield stronger influence than UAE ones. Thus, markets available to UAE for potential export become limited. This is why we find that the countries that purchase weapons from UAE companies remain limited to Arab countries like Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Yemen, etc. UAE military and security institutions are most prominent consumer of these companies’ products, as well as militias supported by UAE abroad, especially in Libya and Yemen.

Presence Abroad

UAE military forces are deployed in several countries, according to the 2019 Military Balance Report issued by the IISS. Among the most prominent of these countries are:

– Yemen: UAE is part of ‘Arab Alliance’ fighting Houthis in Yemen. Estimates vary as to the size of this force, as IISS estimates them at 3,000 soldiers, including tank fighters, helicopter crews, Pantsir missile air defence systems, and four Patriot missile air defence systems. New York Times reporter David Kirkpatrick, however, estimates them at 5,000 soldiers, while other sources estimate them at 10,000. UAE withdrew most of these forces in the second half of 2019.

– Eritrea: UAE forces have a military base on Eritrean coast, in ‘Assab, to support their military operations in Yemen, first permanent military base for UAE in a foreign country. Size of the force stationed there is estimated at 1,000 soldiers, accompanied by tanks and armoured vehicles, three Apache helicopters, four Black Hawk helicopters, Wing Long drones, and Patriot missile defence systems..

– Saudi Arabia: Twelve Emirati F-16 fighter jets are present on Saudi Arabian territory, participating in the war in Yemen.

– Libya: to support militia forces of ex-general, Khalīfa Ḥaftar: Six Air Tractor aircrafts operating in surveillance and light warfare, two Black Hawk helicopters, and two Wing Long drones.

Foreign Military Presence

Given the UAE-Iranian territorial dispute over three islands – Greater Tunb, Lesser Ṭunb, and Abu Mūsa – and UAE’s mission to shield from Iranian ‘expansionist tendencies,’ along with inadequacy of UAE’s defence capabilities to confront regional threats, forms pretexts for UAE to rely primarily on a Western security umbrella for protection. UAE has invited and received various foreign forces, like US forces, at Dhafra Airbase. Among the most prominent foreign forces present in UAE are:

• US forces numbering 5,000 soldiers, accompanied by a squadron of fighter jets consisting of six F-22 aircraft; an intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft squadron consisting of four U2 aircrafts; an early warning squadron of four Boeing E-3 Sentry aircrafts; a squadron of refuelling tanker planes, consisting of 12 KC-10A aircrafts; a drone squadron for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance UAVs, consisting of Global Hawk RQ-4 aircrafts; two Patriot missile air defence systems. Dhafra Base is one of the most important US bases used to monitor Iranian activities and carry out raids in Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan.

• Australian forces numbering 650 soldiers, accompanied by a number of planes, including E-7A air warning and surveillance aircrafts, one KC-30A refuelling tanker aircraft, and two C-130 transport aircrafts.

• French forces numbering 560 soldiers, accompanied by an armoured fighting company, Leclerc tanks, CAESAR self-propelled howitzer artillery units, and six Rafale aircrafts.

• British forces numbering 200 soldiers, accompanied by a refuelling plane, and a C-130 and a C14A transport plane.

• South Korean forces numbering 139 soldiers, who work with UAE Special Forces School.

• Italian forces numbering 120 soldiers, accompanied by two C-130 transport planes.

• Danish forces numbering 20 soldiers, participating in the campaign launched by international coalition against ISIS.

Participation in Wars and Peacekeeping

              The UAE has participated in several ‘peacekeeping’ operations and wars waged abroad. While its participation in such efforts early on was dominated by peacekeeping, since the 2001 US war on Afghanistan, the UAE has started engaging in wars to strengthen Abu Dhabi’s relationship with major powers and to present itself as a reliable ally and an effective player in counterterrorism and ensuring regional stability.

1. Peacekeeping in Lebanon, 1976-1979: UAE joined other military forces within the Arab Deterrence Forces in Lebanon. UAE forces consisted of two infantry companies, an armoured company, an assignment company, a field engineering platoon, an air defence platoon, a signal platoon, administrative support units, and a field hospital.

2. Gulf War, 1991: UAE was a member of the Peninsula Shield forces, in coordination with the US-led international coalition to expel Iraqi army from Kuwait. Participation there included a tank force and several aircrafts.

3. Somalia, 1993: UAE joined a military battalion, accompanied by helicopters, with UN forces deployed to Somalia as part of the US-led “Operation Restoring Hope” for peacekeeping. In 1994, US withdrew its forces and Abu Dhabi followed suit.

4. Kosovo, 1999: UAE participated in peacekeeping operations with a military force numbering 1,000 soldiers, accompanied by Apache helicopters.

5. Afghanistan, 2003: Since 2003, UAE armed forces have worked with the US-led ISAF forces in Afghanistan, with more than 1,200 soldiers. UAE’s forces are used to implement reconstruction plans and maintain security.

6. Bahrain, 2011: UAE sent 500 police officers to join “Peninsula Shield” AGCC forces, which entered Bahrain in March 2011 to support Bahraini regime against demonstrations.

7. Civil war Libya, 2011: UAE sent six Mirage combat aircrafts and six F-16 fighter aircrafts to Italy to participate in the NATO-led operations aimed at intruding into revolution there

8. War against ISIS, 2014: UAE air force participated in the international coalition to fight against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

9. War in Yemen, 2015: UAE forces participated in Operation “Decisive Storm,” launched by “Arab Alliance to Support Legitimacy” in March 2015. This is the most prominent UAE participation and/or intervention, as its forces participated in land, sea, and air operations. UAE military also worked to recruit and train nearly 90,000 fighters of the local militias found mostly in the Yemeni South, such as ” Security Belt”,”Shabwānī elite”, and “Haḍramī elite”.

10. Continuous involvement in Libya, Somalia, and Sudan.

Impact of Abu Dhabi’s Policies on the UAE’s Cohesion

“Abu Dhabi’s regional strategy does not satisfy some of the other emirates… While Abu Dhabi decides military options, the smaller and poorer emirates provide most of the operating forces and have sustained greater human losses.”

This quote appeared in the prominent magazine Intelligence Online, revealing a significant point of tension within the UAE largely due to losses resulting from interventionist policies of Abu Dhabi in Yemen. This point of tension was confirmed by Rāshid bin Ḥamad Al-Sharqī, son of the ruler of Fujairah, after he fled the country. He was quoted by New York Times on July 14, 2018, as having knowledge of resentment held towards Abu Dhabi by the other Emirate rulers that were not consulted by Abu Dhabi before UAE forces were sent to Yemen. He also added that number of deaths among soldiers from Fujairah is greater than those from Abu Dhabi, the largest and most populated emirate.

Data of UAE soldiers killed in Yemen since the start of UAE’s military intervention until August 2019 reveals that death toll of youth reached approximately  – 58 of whom died in September 2015 alone, while 56 soldiers were killed in the city of Ma’rib (52 died in attack and 4 died later during medical treatment in Germany). Numbers and ratios of UAE soldier deaths in Yemen for the various emirates are consistent with the statements of Al-Sharqī, as death toll ratios reflect a significant disproportion. Number of Abu Dhabi’s citizen population is 551,535, according to the 2018 statistical yearbook, that is, equivalent to 55% of total UAE population. However, soldier deaths from Abu Dhabi emirate is only 21% (11 out of 52), far less than their total population rate.

Significance of these numbers explains Mohammed bin Zayed’s rush to offer condolences and visits to the families of fallen soldiers from various emirates. He even allocated resources to create a special office that takes care of their affairs. It also explains UAE regime’s introduction of a memorial day, known as “Day of Martyr,” in 2015, in which a huge festival is held in memory of killing of policeman Salem bin Zu‘ayl during Iranian army’s storming of Greater Ṭunb Island of Ras Al-Khaimah emirate in 1971.

The tension in the relationship between Abu Dhabi and the other emirates was also implicitly referenced in tweets by the UAE Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum. Revealing his annoyance from the interfering role played by UAE in Arab world politics, he tweeted:

Too much involvement in politics in our Arab world is wasting time, corrupting morals, and consuming resources… We have a surplus of politicians in  Arab world and we have a shortage of administrators… Our crisis is an administration crisis and not resources crisis… Look to China and Japan, they do not have natural resources where they had reached… Look to countries that possess oil, gas, water, and population but they do not control their development destiny… and they do not even provide their people with basic services such as roads and electricity… In our Arab world, politician is the one who manages economy, manages education, manages media, and even manages sports! … Politician’s real job is to facilitate life of economist, academic, businessman, journalist and others… Politician’s job is to facilitate peoples’ lives, resolve crises instead of fabricating them… and to build achievements instead of demolishing them.

It seems that Abu Dhabi’s recent downgrading of the UAE’s military presence in Yemen should be seen as an attempt by Abu Dhabi to alleviate fears of other emirates’ rulers, by demonstrating that it will reduce its direct involvement in costly external adventures that ignite more internal disputes and weaken Union’s cohesion.

Challenges Facing the Emirati Project of Hegemony

– UAE suffers from weak internal cohesion and the absence of a unified political vision. UAE’s constitution stipulates that each emirate owns its local wealth resources, which deepens economic gap between constituent emirates, with the pooreremirates unable to secure required minimum revenue to cover needs and expenditures. In addition, each emirate is involved in development and economic projects in which interests of the federal state is absent. This situation is an obstacle to Abu Dhabi’s disposition towards regional hegemony, as its foreign policies do not receive solid support from rest of the emirates.

– UAE has been able to leverage its wealth into political money that has given it access to US decision-making circle. As a result, however, it has had to adopt American and Israeli projects in the region, which in turn increase burdens imposed on the country. This was reflected in just how many direct and indirect conflicts it has found itself in, between military intervention, financing military coups and political interventions, igniting and financing conflicts and internal wars. Should UAE at any point lose access to political circles in Washington, its impact and international activity is likely to shrink.

– UAE, with only one million citizens, does not possess material and economic ingredients necessary to continue waging its hegemonic and interventionist wars. Even though it has enormous fortunes, its economy is, by and large, subject to external variable conditions and lacks strategic depth. This particular economic situation makes its political projects very fragile, as it is likely that uneven economic foundations will not withstand a high drain whose end remains unclear.

– UAE is active in regions and nations where major colonial powers failed to remain precisely because they highly consume efforts, resources, and capabilities without producing tangible results. This is already has manifested in places like Somalia, Djibouti, Yemen, where we are witnessing a decreasing UAE presence.

– Current UAE project is centred around Mohammed bin Zayed and his circle. His absence or removal from office could result in a sudden shift in policy. Importance of this is underscored by increasing leaks regarding other emirate rulers’ anger due to the losses suffered in Yemen, economic losses resulting from siege of Qatar, and decline in trade relations with Iran.

These limitations, related to extent of Abu Dhabi’s ability to bear burdens of its hegemony project, indicate the improbability that this project can last, due to several factors of internal fragility, such as population scarcity, inability to bear significant military setbacks, differences in the interests of various emirates and their rulers, and sensitivity of UAE’s economy to any global financial tremors or wars. Strong regional countries like Iran or an increase in human and financial attrition externally could also affect ability of UAE armed forces to meet Abu Dhabi’s regional ambitions.

Conclusion

Following outbreak of Arab uprisings in 2011 and election of political parties affiliated with Muslim Brotherhood to government in Egypt and Tunisia, decline in regional roles of traditionally influential Arab countries like Egypt and Syria, collapse of countries like Libya and Yemen, and emergence of transnational organisations -not to mention decline of US presence in the region and rise of some UAE Islamicist voices calling for internal reforms – UAE sought to invest in regional vacuum and adopt a project of regional hegemony aimed at making UAE a new kingmaker through a combination of military (hard) power and soft power. UAE’s project is based on:

• Confronting wave of Arab Spring uprisings by planning, financing, and managing the wave of counter-revolutions, especially in Egypt, Libya and Yemen.

• Building military bases and managing a network of seaports in strategic locations on Red Sea coast, western Indian Ocean, and eastern coast of Africa, as is happening in Yemen, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia.

• Developing Abu Dhabi-dominated UAE army, especially air force, navy, and special operations force, purchasing latest weapons and combat systems produced by world’s top defence industries. Additionally, increasing army troops by levying compulsory recruitment in 2014 until the size of UAE operating army reached 63,000 soldiers.

• Establishing an infrastructure for military industries in cooperation with foreign companies, merging local arms manufacturing companies in Emirates Defence Industries Company (EDIC) in 2014, and focusing nascent company’s efforts on producing technologically advanced weapons, such as unmanned air and land vehicles, armoured vehicles, and smart shells.

• Enhancing UAE’s regional role by contributing to financing the armament programmes of many countries, such as Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan, as well as financing armament programme for countries of military alliance in the African Sahel region (G5) that arose out of France’s arrangement to confront escalating threats posed by organisations there. • Enhancing foreign relations with active or emerging Asian countries, such as Japan, China, South Korea, and Singapore, and getting involved in economic projects in Africa and Latin America, so as to place oil revenues in profitable investments, which ultimately strengthens UAE influence.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely the author’s and do not neccessarily reflect the opinions or beliefs of the website and its affiliates.